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29 – March 2019 :: The Delphi survey on “Future Skills – Future Learning and future Higher Education” analyzed and validated a set of 16 future skills, consulted with experts on the key drivers of higher education development and formulated  scenarios for  future higher education. The 50 international Delphi experts were consulted on their views on four  scenarios of future higher education: (1) the future skill university scenario, (2) the networked multi-institutional study scenario, (3) the my-university scenario, (4) the lifelong higher learning scenario that diverge from a baseline scenario exemplifying today’s model of higher education.

Background: Next Skills Study

www.nextskills.org   published a study on “Future Skills – future learning and future higher education”. The study is outlining expert validated model of 16 future skill profiles for future graduates. It follows the rational that higher education as a system is standing at a breaking point of development challenges and outlines drivers and four future scenarios. Amongst the questions experts were asked to rate and comment on higher education institutions’ readiness to support future skill development. The study resulted into a number of issues related to future learning concepts in higher education, strategies for future profiles and future skills for future graduates (full report and executive summary here: https://nextskills.org/future-skills-report-2019/).

Please find the key drivers of change here

Building on identified key drivers for change (future skills, multi-institutional approaches, personalization, and lifelong learning), four potential scenarios have been envisioned and subjected to the experts’ evaluation:

1 – The ‘future skill’ university: The ‘future skill’ scenario suggests that higher education institutions would leave the current model that focusses on knowledge acquisition. Instead, new profiles would be developed that emphasize graduates’ future skill development. In this scenario, HE would mainly be organized around one key objective: to enable the development of graduates’ future skills, i.e. complex problem solving, dealing with uncertainty or developing a sense of responsibility, etc. This would not replace but go beyond the current emphasis of knowledge acquisition and studying based on defined curricula for fixed professions. This scenario received an overall level of agreement of 63% from the international expert sample.

2 – The networked, university: This scenario views higher education as a networked study experience. It will not be down to a single institution providing a student with a certain program, but that this role would be split among multiple institutions. This means that ‘digital import’ and ‘digital export’ of parts of the curriculum would play a significant role. The standard HE study structure and experience would shift from a “one-institution” model to a “multi-institutional” model. The multi-institutional scenario reached agreement levels of 46% in terms of its likelihood to be part of the organization of future higher education.

3 – The “My-University” scenario: This scenario describes HEIs as spaces where the elements of choices enlarge, and students can build their own curricula based on their personal interests. The curriculum of academic programs in this scenario would move from a fully predefined and ‘up-front’ given structure to a more flexible, personalized and participatory model in which students actively cooperate with professors/ teachers/ advisors in curriculum building of HE programs. Almost 60% of the international expert sample agreed with this scenario.

4 – The lifelong higher learning scenario: In this scenario, seamless lifelong higher learning would be as important as initial higher education. Learners in the workplace would be the main type of student, choosing their portfolio of modules according to their personal skill needs and competence demands with high autonomy throughout their lifetime. Institutions thus would offer micro-credentials, which students assemble individually based on their own interests. Recognition of prior study achievements and practical experience would enable permeable shifting between different providers, which offer to bundle prior learning experience into larger certifications. This scenario received the highest level of agreement, with almost three quarters of respondents agreeing or strongly agreeing with it.

In terms of the estimates on time of adoption, three out of four scenarios score with a time of adoption of more than 10 years from today. Only the lifelong higher learning scenario scored for a time of adoption within the next 5 years according to the majority of experts.

Read the report on “Future Skills – Future Learning and Future Higher Education” to find out what experts suggest in order to turn higher education institutions into future skill ready organizations – chapter 7.

Prof. Dr. Ulf-Daniel Ehlers, 29 March 2019 

Thought Piece on Future Skills in Higher Education

The Delphi Survey on Future Skills – Future Learning and Future Higher Education draws a clear picture when it comes to readiness of higher education institutions. The international experts’ panel of 50 experts from academia and business converged in their views broadly and estimated that while future skills will become increasingly relevant and important within the next 5 years, higher education institutions are not prepared to support future graduates in developing them. 

Background: Next Skills Study

www.nextskills.org   published a study on “Future Skills – future learning and future higher education”. The study is outlining expert validated model of 16 future skill profiles for future graduates. It follows the rational that higher education as a system is standing at a breaking point of development challenges and outlines drivers and four future scenarios. Amongst the questions experts were asked to rate and comment on higher education institutions’ readiness to support future skill development. The study resulted into a number of issues related to future learning concepts in higher education, strategies for future profiles and future skills for future graduates (full report and executive summary here: https://nextskills.org/future-skills-report-2019/).

Lacking Readiness of Higher Education Institutions

Research resulted into a defined set of 16 future skill profiles which are rooted into a clearly structured and well-described set of three dimensions.

Fig.1 Future Skill Model (more at nextskills.org)

Download key Finding or full report on Future Skill Delphi  here.

The future skill profiles were validated and rated through Delphi experts – both on their importance, as well as on experts’ opinion about higher education readiness to adopt those future skills into their mission and every day practice. Both variables were assessed on a five-point Likert-scale, whereby importance ranged from 5 = “very important” to 1 = “not important” and support from 5 = “very good” to 1 = “very poor”. To gain an overview on the discrepancy between skill’s importance and its respective level of support in higher education, we calculated the delta, subtracting the mean support from the mean importance.

Fig 2: Subject and individual development related skills: Importance (dark blue bars) versus current degree of higher education support (light blue bars) (N = 46)

All individual development-related Future Skills are perceived as important, with autonomy being rated as very important (M = 4.53, SD = 0.62). Autonomous learning competence (M = 4.48, SD = 0.69) and self-management (M = 4.46, SD = 0.72) occupied the second and third most important positions. Contrary to that, the degree of implementation in higher education, expressing the evaluation of experts how well HEI are equipped to support the development of these skills is rated low. The delta between both values has been calculated. It shows that the largest discrepancy is perceived for the autonomous learning competence (Δ = 1.83) and autonomy (Δ = 1.81) – two of the skills that earlier had been rated among the most important.

Fig. 3: Object-related skills (Instrumental skills): Importance (dark blue bars) versus current degree of higher education support (light blue bars) (NImportance = 44, NSupport = 45)

Object related skills are skills which are relying on individual dispositions to act in unknown future environments but where the object of action is not the individual itself but a certain object which needs to be acted upon – e.g. a certain task. The experts rated all skills to be important, except for the ability to reflect, which was even voted to be very important (M = 4.50, SD = 0.67). Furthermore, the data reveals that the ability to reflect is one of the currently best-supported skills in HEIs compared to the other object-related skills. Least support apparently exists for agility and creativity skills (M = 2.53, SD = 0.87; M = 2.52, SD = 0.85), leading to the highest perceived discrepancy between agility skills’ importance and their current support through HEIs.

Fig. 4: Organization-related skills: Importance (dark blue bars) versus current degree of higher education support (light blue bars) (N = 45)

Individual organization related skills are those skills which are needed to act in organizational and social environments. In this section all skills are perceived of as important, whereby cooperation and communication skills are even rated to be very important (M= 4.59 SD = 0.67; M = 4.67, SD = 0.67). While being rated highly important, the discrepancy in experts judgement reveals that higher education institutions are found not to be ready for supporting their development. 

Read the report on “Future Skills – Future Learning and Future Higher Education” to find out what experts suggest in order to turn higher education institutions into future skill ready organizations – chapter 7.

[1]One popular theory to explain the rising trend in inequality was first put forward by the Dutch Nobel Prize winner in Economics Jan Tinbergen over four decades ago.He characterized wage inequality as being the outcome of a “race between education and technology”. In this theory, technology increases the relative demands for more skilled labour while education increases the relative supplies of such labour. Thus, rising inequality implies that technology is winning this race.

Ulf-Daniel Ehlers, 21 March 2019

In late October, I was asked to keynote on a very interesting conference in Brussels, organized by the Asia-Europe Foundation (more). The conference was on ethical leadership and it was organized as a summit of young professionals, talking – for three days –  about ethics in leadership from many different perspectives. Here is a nice video.

Direct shortcut to article: Ethical leadership and Education

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Last month the German Forum for Higher Education Digitalization organized a one week long conference event which was called “The Digital Turn”. The organizers  asked me to write a piece on “Digital Leadership” in higher education. The topic seemed handy to me… but I must admit – looking back now – that it was one of the hardest articles to write… But have look yourself… I translated it into English below… Comments welcome…

Direct shortcut to article:  Digital Leadership in Higher Education

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Ausgabe 5: Digitalisierung und die Folgen für die organisation, Industrie,Markt und Wirtschaft der Zukunft”

On which digital Planet do we want to live? Wie sieht die Welt in 2030 aus – wie verändert Digitalisierung, wie wir leben?

Diese Fragen wurden im Rahmen von studentischen Projekten im Sommersemester 2018 an der DHBW bearbeitet. Die überzeugendsten Ergebnisse stellen wir hier als “Arbeitspapiere zur Digitalisierung” zur Verfügung. Jede Woche werden 2 Ausarbeitungen zum Thema Digitalisierung hier präsentiert. In dieser Woche beginnt es mit dem Thema der Digitalisierung und die Folgen für die organisation, Industrie,Markt und Wirtschaft der Zukunft”

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Last month I was contacted by Ulrich Bernath, Editor in Chief of the European Journal of Research in Open and Distance Learning. He told me, that Martine Vidal had approached him because she wanted to publish a best of edition in her Journal, called  “Distance and Mediation of Knowledge”. I must say that I felt truly honored to be asked to be part of the selection. So – than you for this honor to both colleagues! Below you find his  “commendation”.  Continue reading →

Ausgabe 4: Digitalisierung und die Folgen für die digitale, vernetzte Gesellschaft

On which digital Planet do we want to live? Wie sieht die Welt in 2030 aus – wie verändert Digitalisierung, wie wir leben?

Diese Fragen wurden im Rahmen von studentischen Projekten im Sommersemester 2018 an der DHBW bearbeitet. Die überzeugendsten Ergebnisse stellen wir hier als “Arbeitspapiere zur Digitalisierung” zur Verfügung. Jede Woche werden 2 Ausarbeitungen zum Thema Digitalisierung hier präsentiert. In dieser Woche beginnt es mit dem Thema der Digitalisierung und die Folgen für die digitale, vernetzte Gesellschaft.

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Ausgabe 3: Digitalisierung und die Folgen für die Bürger/innen

On which digital Planet do we want to live? Wie sieht die Welt in 2030 aus – wie verändert Digitalisierung, wie wir leben?

Diese Fragen wurden im Rahmen von studentischen Projekten im Sommersemester 2018 an der DHBW bearbeitet. Die überzeugendsten Ergebnisse stellen wir hier als “Arbeitspapiere zur Digitalisierung” zur Verfügung. Jede Woche werden 2 Ausarbeitungen zum Thema Digitalisierung hier präsentiert. In dieser Woche beginnt es mit dem Thema der Digitalisierung in die Bürger.

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